(The following is the English translation of an article by Kamran Malekpour, originally published in Sarmayeh Newspaper on August 15, 2006.
For some time now, activists in the country’s livestock industry have been reporting on the potential for a decline in production in this sector.
The increase in powdered milk imports and its use in the production of dairy products—a practice confirmed by several major factories—combined with the rising cost of animal feed, has created a situation where the future of the country’s dairy industry is facing uncertainty.
Ali Akbar Abbas Dalooei, the chairman of the board of the National Union of Dairy Farmers, says: “If the current conditions continue, we must expect the bankruptcy and closure of many of our country’s dairy farms.”
He adds: “Currently, the private sector is the custodian of the dairy industry, and it is sacrificing the interests of both the producer and the consumer for its own gains.”
In 2003, the Ministry of Jihad Agriculture initiated a multi-year plan to increase the country’s milk production to 12 million tons by the year 2013. For the past three years, the Deputy Ministry for Livestock Affairs has adjusted its declared statistics to align with the forecasts of this plan. Now, while the country’s milk production figure of six million tons is fraught with great uncertainty, the Deputy Ministry for Livestock Affairs has announced a forecast of over seven million tons for the current year.
Mohammad Farbeh, a board member of the Association of Dairy Industries, says in this regard: “Based on a report from the Ministry of Industries and Mines, the country’s milk production is estimated to be around four million tons, but on the other side, the Ministry of Jihad Agriculture claims this amount is over seven million tons.”
Nezamoddin Sajjadi, the Deputy for Livestock Affairs at the Ministry of Jihad Agriculture, previously responded to Sarmayeh at his first press conference regarding the method of calculating national production statistics, stating: “Milk production statistics are compiled based on conventional methods, and forecasts are also determined by assessing the condition of the livestock farms.”
In response to the question that factory owners, dairy product producers, and many industry activists and independent organizations consider the declared statistics to be unrealistic, he added: “If you do not accept the real statistics, that is not our problem.”
Based on the information obtained, the country’s milk production statistics are calculated based on the number of large and small livestock. The livestock statistics in the country are also approximate and estimated.
The Deputy Ministry for Livestock Affairs calculates the country’s milk production by multiplying the livestock statistics—which can have a very high margin of fluctuation—by the average milk production per animal, which is also an estimate, and then multiplying that by the number of days in a year. It’s an easy and effortless method for calculation and for increasing the existing statistics with a slight change in one of the initial figures, even for subsequent years.
“The milk consumed by kids and calves is also calculated in the human consumption statistics for the country.” Hamid Ghomashchi, a veterinarian and the manager of a modern dairy farm near Tehran, stated this to Sarmayeh, adding: “The current methods of statistical collection for milk production in the country are flawed, and until the data collection method is reformed, the statistics will continue to be incorrect.”
He reminds us: “In any case, it is clear that the statistics announced by the Deputy Ministry for Livestock Affairs are unrealistic.”
For several weeks now, the Public Relations office of the Deputy Ministry for Livestock Affairs has been unresponsive to journalists due to a change of office rooms within building number two of the Ministry of Jihad Agriculture, and contact with this department to obtain further information on this matter has been unsuccessful.
